Regional responses to security and development challenges in East and Southern Africa: lessons and way forward

Since the mid-twentieth century, the East and Southern African regions have been mired in complex and overlapping security and development challenges, including ethnopolitical conflicts, terrorist insurgencies, the proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALWs), and overwhelming economic crisis. These challenges have had implications for human security, socio-economic development, territorial authority, sovereignty and the stability and legitimacy of political regimes in the affected states. The adequacy and relevance of the regional responses to these challenges is the subject of ongoing debate, to which this paper now adds. Among other factors, this paper identifies competition for regional dominance and institutional inadequacies as accounting for the inability of regional governance bodies to respond adequately to the challenges they face. Consequently, it recommends the expansion of the mandate of the Regional Economic Communities (RECs) beyond regional economic integration to include peacebuilding and a deepening of the institutional efforts focused on security cooperation and conflict management.     

基于Floyd算法的常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划

为提高常规导弹连续波次作战效能，对常规导弹连续波次作战运输规划问题进行研究。以Floyd算法为基础，首先生成了作战机动区域的交通网络最短路径、距离矩阵；其次将常规导弹连续波次作战运输过程分解为不同阶段，以运输过程中的整体暴露时间最短为目标，构建了初始规划方案0-1整数规划模型；然后考虑道路通行量及地域容量限制，对初始规划方案中存在的地域容量超过限制及单行道路中会车、超车情况进行逐步循环优化，以得到最佳运输规划方案；最后选择了一个作战案例想定，通过Matlab编程对案例进行了求解，得到了针对此案例的最佳运输规划方案，验证了模型的正确性和算法的有效性。     

指挥院校英语课堂团队教学策略的实验研究

培养指挥类军事院校学员的团队精神，强化团队意识，把建立有效的激励机制等方法贯穿于教学的各个环节中。团队教学方法不仅可以提高指挥类军校学员的团队协作精神，同时团队教学策略又能显著提高指挥类军校学员的英语口语能力。     

Capacity expansion under a service‐level constraint for uncertain demand with lead times

For a service provider facing stochastic demand growth, expansion lead times and economies of scale complicate the expansion timing and sizing decisions. We formulate a model to minimize the infinite horizon expected discounted expansion cost under a service‐level constraint. The service level is defined as the proportion of demand over an expansion cycle that is satisfied by available capacity. For demand that follows a geometric Brownian motion process, we impose a stationary policy under which expansions are triggered by a fixed ratio of demand to the capacity position, i.e., the capacity that will be available when any current expansion project is completed, and each expansion increases capacity by the same proportion. The risk of capacity shortage during a cycle is estimated analytically using the value of an up‐and‐out partial barrier call option. A cutting plane procedure identifies the optimal values of the two expansion policy parameters simultaneously. Numerical instances illustrate that if demand grows slowly with low volatility and the expansion lead times are short, then it is optimal to delay the start of expansion beyond when demand exceeds the capacity position. Delays in initiating expansions are coupled with larger expansion sizes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

A nuclear-armed North Korea without ICBMs: the best achievable objective

This article analyzes the North Korean nuclear crisis from a balance-of-power perspective. It is in the long-term interests of international peace for a secure and independent North Korea to serve as a buffer between US and Chinese ground forces. However, the conventional military advantage of the South Korean-American alliance over North Korea has grown drastically since the end of the Cold War, threatening North Korea’s survival. Since North Korea lacks any reliable ally, nuclear weapons represent its most cost-effective way to restore a balance of power and thus secure itself. Accepting security guarantees in exchange for its nuclear arsenal is rhetorically appealing but not a viable approach. North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), however, has overcompensated for the post-Cold War imbalance, inviting talk in Washington of waging a preventive war. Persuading North Korea to give up its ICBM capability, not its nuclear arsenal, should therefore be the primary objective of US diplomacy.     

Chinese views of the nuclear endgame in North Korea

ABSTRACT

This article examines Chinese views of North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program during the Donald J. Trump administration. It shows that China has portrayed itself as a responsible country that promotes regional stability, unlike the United States, which has engaged in military brinkmanship with North Korea. Some Chinese foreign-policy experts have asserted that Beijing should back Pyongyang in the event of war because of their shared history of humiliation by great powers, while others have favored working with other regional partners. Another theme in Chinese discourse about North Korea is that Pyongyang is an impetuous, ungrateful regime that impedes Beijing’s ability to attain its core interests of regional stability, economic development, and heightened global influence. This negative assessment of North Korea drove Beijing’s endorsement of stricter UN sanctions in 2017. While Beijing has punished Pyongyang for its wayward policies, China responded favorably to North Korea’s decision in April 2018 to stop nuclear tests and partake in international dialogue. Beijing seeks to help Pyongyang gradually disarm and develop its economy within a Chinese-led East Asian order. The article concludes by explaining how Beijing’s recent, more positive view of Pyongyang is likely to affect its support for American efforts to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear-weapon program.     

测控站布局对区域卫星导航系统的影响

建立区域卫星导航系统的测控网是卫星导航系统要解决的关键问题之一。讨论国内测控站的布设问题,采用网格计算方法分析国内测控站对导航星座的可观测性。引入位置精度衰减因子PDOP和定轨中的法矩阵条件数,分析测控网对导航星座的观测几何结构强度以及测站位置分布对轨道确定精度的影响,仿真结果表明,利用我国有限的国土跨度和航天测控资源可以确保对导航卫星的测控任务的完成。对在国外布设测控站进行讨论和仿真,结果说明位于国外的测控站(如可在澳大利亚的珀斯设站)的加入能明显改善观测的几何结构强度、提高导航卫星的轨道精度。     

More military base closure? Considering the alternatives*

Despite multiple base closing rounds, the United States Department of Defense still has excess base capacity, and thus President Trump and high-level Defense Department officials are calling for more base closure through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. However, another BRAC may not be the optimal solution, because simple base closure is not an efficient way to reduce surplus base capacity. Thus, Defense Department officials should consider other methods to reduce surplus capacity, including reduction in base size, leasing excess base property, or transferring it to another government agency for a variety of alternative uses. The surplus capacity issue also offers an opportunity to DOD to reassess base utilization, to update base requirements with current and future force structure. While BRAC focuses on American military bases, the process and alternatives also have international applications.     

集团军跨域应急作战装备保障能力建设研究

加强应急作战装备保障能力建设,是提高战斗力的重要组成部分。本文针对新体制、新形势下的军队战争形态、使命任务和训练要求,分析了集团军跨域应急作战装备保障的主要特点和当前装备保障存在的不足,并在此基础上,从构建理论体系和装备保障平台、人才队伍建设,装备保障模式以及装备保障实战化训练五个方面给出了集团军跨域应急作战装备保障能力建设和应对措施。